With the men’s college basketball season heating up, it is time to start looking ahead to March. There has not really been one dominant team thus far as three teams have been ranked at number one as of the week 13 Associated Press (AP) poll rankings.
Not having one over-powering team opens the door for many different teams to have a shot come tournament time. While there is still a lot of basketball to be played before selection Sunday, right now there are two tiers of teams that can win it all.
Tier one is teams that have played well all season, and rank towards the top in most metrics. The tier one teams include: Auburn, Duke, Iowa State, Houston, and Michigan State.
The second tier is teams that still have a legit shot at cutting down the nets in March, but have not played to their early season projections, nor rank well in certain metrics. The tier two teams include: Kansas, Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama, and UConn.
The team that many people would look at now as title favorites are the Auburn Tigers, led by National Player of the Year candidate Johni Broome. Auburn began the season ranked outside of the top ten at the number 11 spot. They quickly started to build their resume with early wins over Iowa State, Houston, and Purdue. The winning continued as they got to conference play, which has helped them become one of the top teams in the country.
Since 2000, all but one national champion was ranked in the top 89th percentile in offense according to Number Fire, which Auburn is comfortably inside of as they currently are tied for the fifth best offense by scoring margin in the league. Auburn also ranks 36th in the nation in scoring defense, which is very good. It would not be surprising if Auburn ends up being the 2025 national champions.
Two other tier one teams that have a very good chance at winning it all are Iowa State and Houston. Iowa State has been inside of the top ten all season. As of Jan. 26, 2025, they are 17-2 for the season and 7-1 in conference play. Their only losses have come against a solid West Virginia team, and Auburn. Iowa State is tied with Auburn for the fifth best offense in the nation, and ranks 44th in defense. Houston has had way more of an up and down season, as they began the season ranked fourth, but dropped all the way down to 17th in early December.
On paper, Houston appears to be the best team in the country as they have the best offense in terms of scoring margin at 21, as well as the best scoring defense, only allowing 55.6 points per game according to the NCAA. While they do not have one outstanding scorer, they have a deep and experienced roster led by junior guard, L.J. Cryer.
The team in tier one that can probably challenge the Tigers the most are the Duke Blue Devils. Led by freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, the Blue Devils have just kept getting better as the season has gone on. Duke definitely showed their youth and inexperience early on, as they have three freshman starters, with losses against Kansas and Kentucky in November. Duke has been a tear ever since, winning 13 straight. Duke ranks second in scoring margin in the nation, and fifth in defense. Their elite defense has been key as they have only allowed 58.8 points per game throughout their winning streak.
The last team in tier one is an interesting one. Michigan State came into the season unranked, and did not find themselves in the top 25 until halfway through December. Their only two losses came against strong Kansas and Memphis teams. While they do not have as many wins against top level teams, they have constantly won the games they should have. Michigan State only has one player averaging over 10 points per game, but they still average over 81 as a team which puts them top 40 in the nation. They definitely have the most to prove out of the teams in tier one, but they could be a surprising and fun team that can go a long way in March.
Tier two is teams that definitely have a shot at being champions, but have not played well enough when it mattered most. One of the teams, Kansas, has very good wins over other top teams such as Duke, Iowa State, and Houston, but have also suffered losses against teams they should not have. They have the star power and experience to make it all the way, but they will have to play more consistently than they have in order to make a championship run.
An interesting tier two team is Tennessee. The Volunteers started off the season 14-0, which put them at number one in the nation for five weeks. They have since cooled down, losing three games in January, which has hurt their championship hopes. Tennessee is a very good team, but not good enough to go the distance in March.
Marquette and UConn are two Big East teams that have not played up to their full potential thus far. Marquette has not played as tough of a schedule as some of the other top teams, but have taken advantage of it for the most part. Besides their losses to Iowa State, Dayton, and Xavier, they have had a great season. If they could have beaten the weaker Xavier and Dayton, they could be a one loss team that could have people looking at them in a different way.
At this point in the season, UConn has fallen out of many peoples list of contenders since they have been nowhere near their pre season projection. Many thought that UConn would stroll through the regular season, and make another deep run in an attempt to defend their championships in 2023 and 2024. But the opposite has happened as UConn has already suffered six losses by late January. The reason that they are still in tier two is simply head coach Dan Hurley, and his winning pedigree. It would come as no surprise if they went on a winning streak to end the regular season, and make another run in the tournament.
Lastly, maybe the most one sided team in the country, Alabama. They rank 36th in scoring margin, first in scoring offense at over 90 points per game, but 324th in scoring defense. If Alabama can step up on the defensive side, they definitely have the talent to go the distance in March, but they have a lot of work to do.
With all of this said, the 2025 national champions will be the Duke Blue Devils. Although they are the youngest team in the nation, they will be ready by tournament time, and coach John Schyer will get Duke their first championship in the post coach Mike Krzyzewski era. The key win that puts Duke over the top is the victory over the next best team Auburn. If Duke could beat Auburn in early December with 17-year-old Cooper Flagg, there is no reason they can not do it again in March. Their mix of youth and a few veteran leaders, as well as their top tier defense will be enough to take Duke all the way.
